Gowings Bros · AI Datacentre Underwriting
v1.0   May 2026

Hunter NSW against ERCOT Texas: how the assumptions move the position

Flex three numbers and pick a customer mix. The cost gap to the United States, the unlevered yield, the payback, and the applicable thesis update on the right. Companion to the synthesis brief; assumes a sub-200 megawatt build at a Hunter site with stamped grid capacity. Indicative model only; refer to the brief for the full argument.

Assumptions
50100160
03.57
0%50%100%
Live outputs
Cost gap vs ERCOT, fully built $/MW
+28%
Unlevered yield, year-three steady state
7.4%
Payback (undiscounted)
11.6 yrs
Effective fully-built capex per MW
AUD 67M
Contracted revenue mix
76%

Capex base AUD 50M per MW (powered shell) plus AUD 18M GPU layer at Blackwell-class pricing; grid-wait carry at 7% WACC. Revenue rates: defence and AUKUS AUD 4.6M, federal civilian AUD 3.8M, enterprise AUD 3.2M, merchant AUD 2.7M per MW per year. Spot fill at 65 to 85% of anchor rate by segment.

Which thesis applies, given the current mix
Hyperscaler captive
Enterprise revenue persistence; Copilot-class seat economics
Neocloud merchant
Lab counterparty quality; GPU residual value; merchant pricing
REIT and infrastructure fund
Power and grid scarcity; tenant credit; long-tenor lease
Sovereign and strategic
Government anchor; concessional capital; political continuity
Position read
Self-contained companion. No tracking, no external calls. Source: Gowings Bros synthesis brief, May 2026. Indicative model