AI Datacentres
Gowings Bros · AI Datacentre Underwriting
v2.0   May 2026

Sydney boutique against hyperscaler-Sydney

Move four numbers, pick a customer mix. Deployed capital, year-three NOI, unlevered yield, levered IRR, and the contracted revenue mix update on the right; the applicable thesis and position read update underneath. Indicative model only.

Assumptions
AUD 35MAUD 45MAUD 60M
+5%+20%+35%
0%50%100%
246
Live outputs
Deployed capital, 28 MW
AUD 1.26B
Year-3 NOI
AUD 47M
Unlevered yield, steady state
8.7%
Levered IRR, investment-grade
12.7%
Contracted revenue mix at signing
88%
Payback (undiscounted)
11.5 yrs

Hyperscaler-Sydney baseline AUD 4.5M / MW / year (mid-range AirTrunk Sydney and NEXTDC S3 wholesale); anchor rate = baseline × (1 + premium). Opex 22% of revenue. Headline NOI metrics use anchor pricing across capacity. Unlevered yield net of 30-year refresh provision. Levered IRR proxies steady-state cash-on-cash at 55% LTV, 6.5% senior coupon, with rent escalation. Customer mix drives the verdict.

Which thesis the mix maps onto
Hyperscaler captive
Enterprise revenue persistence; Copilot-class seat economics
Neocloud merchant
Lab counterparty quality; GPU residual value; merchant pricing
REIT and infrastructure fund
Power and grid scarcity; tenant credit; long-tenor lease
Sovereign and strategic
Government anchor; concessional capital; political continuity
Position read
Self-contained companion. No tracking, no external calls. Source: Gowings Bros synthesis brief, May 2026. Indicative model